climate.geologist-1011.netClimate Change Catastrophes in Critical Thinking

eMail directory . Software . Web Design . Geologist Consulting Geologist | Home | About me | Contact me | Site Map | Privacy | Security | Standards | Legal | Timothy Casey B.Sc.(Hons.): Consulting Geologist . Not so Apologetic . Deforestation . Climate . Greenhouse Effect . Volcanic CO 2 . Volcanic CFCs . Expanding Earth . Palaeomagnetism . The Age of the Earth . Fossil Record -- . Science . Pseudoscience . Genesis . Interpretation . Movies and Books -- . Most Misquoted This is to be a work in progress. As I collect more interesting evidence, I'll be sure to add it. Abstract This article explores the phenomenon of global warming, climate change, and the extraordinary consequences popularly speculated. As a hypothesis can only be scientific if it is testable, this article tests key assertions of climate change Catastrophism against the facts of the geological record. Finding that, climate change Catastrophism lacks scientific support, the implications of neo-catastrophist behaviour with special regard to global warming is considered and in this light, the proposed remedies for global warming are examined against contemporary crises and opportunities. This article finds that the impact of excessive land clearance is of far greater concern. What is Global Warming? Global warming is a generalisation in both space and time used to describe the rising trend in mean global temperature evident in many but not all analyses of near-surface temperature data. Temperature is measured instrumentally at weather stations located mostly in and around cities, towns and villages; and by infrared imaging of the lower Troposphere obtained by satellite. The Troposphere is the lowest layer of atmosphere making lower Tropospheric mean temperatures much more representative of global mean temperature than the average of measurements taken in mostly built up areas that are ultimately exaggerated by building heat during Winter, air-conditioner venting during Summer, and radiant heat from bitumen and concrete, etc. It is noteworthy that those promoting the global warming panic still use the soundly discredited instrumental temperature charts instead of the less convenient satellite data. Climate change, and in particular the subject of global warming, has become a hotly debated subject in recent years. Much of the debate seems to be focussed on speculative projections arising from an emphasis of the soundly discredited instrumental temperature averages of contemporary history to the exclusion of better quality satellite data along with what is known about temperature trends throughout human history and indeed prehistory. According to those alarmed at the prospect of a warmer planet Earth, global warming poses one of the greatest threats humanity have faced in our rather short history. It is often asserted that global warming is caused by rising carbon dioxide levels and that it will ultimately cause the expansion of deserts and arid regions, a substantial rise in mean sea level, and the mass extinction of much of the life on planet Earth. If such catastrophes were indeed the product of global warming, they would have occurred as consequences of past global warming events. The geological record with numerous indicators of temperature, climate, sea level, carbon dioxide levels, and biodiversity; can be used to test the speculation that global warming would indeed be catastrophic. What Can History & the Geological Record Tell Us About Global Warming? How Reliable is Geological History in Modelling Global Warming? Claims of global warming catastrophe are speculations made on the basis of limited combinations of physical processes. The applicability of such combinations cannot be proven on their own merit, because without some form of empirical testing we cannot verify that they are completely representative of all processes relevant to global climate change. Without a repeatable test against which to measure such claims, they cannot correctly be described as scientific hypotheses. Geological history is ignored by those raising the alarm about global warming and I have heard it argued that the geological record is irrelevant because it is "in the past and things are really different now". However, the very uniqueness claimed of those current conditions identified as affecting the climate can also be tested against the geological record. Moreover, cyclicity is well documented in both history (eg. Tuchman, 1987) and geology (eg. Miall, 1997), so it stands to reason that the past can offer a valuable testbed for climate speculation. Palaeotemperature Temperature in the geological record, is determined by oxygen isotope ratios measured from the analysis of remains of floating marine organisms and calibrated against the correlation of oxygen isotope ratios measured in modern floating marine organism remains against temperature means measured in human history (eg. Veizer et al., 2000). Another very accurate indicator of temperature is the extent of specific sediment types such as tillites, moraine deposits, and drop-stones, indicative of glacial activity at latitudes specific to the plate tectonic reconstruction of the period of geological history in question (Scotese, 2001; Royer et al., 2004). Recent pH corrections to the oxygen isotope palaeotemperature record made by Royer et al. (2004) have improved palaeotemperature correlation with both cosmic radiation cycles and temperature constraints imposed by the varying distribution of glacial sediment. In this sense we have a very accurate picture of some of the patterns and variations of temperature throughout geological history. Palaeobathymetry Taking variations of mean sea level into account has proven vital to accurate basin analysis. Basin analysis is used to identify the historical path of source and reservoir rocks relative to the oil window. This is used to determine whether potential reservoirs may have been buried too deeply or alternatively if potential source rocks have been buried deeply enough to produce the targeted hydrocarbons. Miall (1997) devotes an entire section to the subject of non-seismic methods for reconstructing a palaeobathymetric record. While seismic methods used stratigraphic features such as onlap to indicate relative sea level through time, other methods include sediment thickness plots, the Fischer plot based on cycle number, and the R3 plot based on decompacted sediment thicknesses. While precise correlation between methods is not observed, the accuracy of correlation is surprising. If palaeobathymetry is accurate enough for profitable stratigraphic analysis in petroleum exploration, then the global plots are accurate enough to test the assertion that global warming causes sea level rises. Palaeoclimate Sedimentology is a study of sedimentation that compares modern sediments with sediments observed in the geological record in order to identify depositional environments. Implicit in the nature and extent of depositional environments is the controlling palaeoclimate. Pelletal clays, evapourites, desiccation cracks, synaeresis cracks, and wind borne sediments such as sand dunes, loess, and parna are all indicators of arid conditions which are confirmed by the presence of clasts with etched or pitted surfaces, silcrete, and dreikanters (wind-faceted pebbles). Tillite, moraine, drop-stones, and striated erosion surfaces found on outcrop, boulders and drop-stones are all produced by glaciers. Coals are typically preserved in wet and humid environments. "Polystrate" trees (trees preserved as coal and clastic sediment accumulates around them) and varves (seasonal sedimentation) are features of lacustrine or lake sedimentation. Other environments clearly indicated by sediment types, sequences and stratigraphic sequence include deltas, estuaries, submarine canyons, braided river systems, meandering river systems, coral reefs, abyssal plains, coasts, etc. Sediment features such as bed thickness, symmetrical rip...